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PC

PEDEVCO CORP (PED)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 2024 net income was heavily influenced by a year-end $12.8M income tax benefit from NOLs, driving FY 2024 net income to $17.8M ($0.20/share) despite a Q4 operating loss; revenue for FY 2024 increased 28% YoY to $39.6M .
  • Operational momentum continued from D-J Basin non-operated wells and Permian San Andres wells completed early 2024, with FY 2024 Adjusted EBITDA up 31% to $22.9M and average production of 1,835 BOEPD (85% liquids) .
  • 2025 capital program guided at $27–$33M, with 70–75% allocated to D-J Basin development under new JV/participation agreements; initial borrowing base of $20M under a $250M Citibank RBL provides incremental liquidity .
  • A material weakness was identified and previously issued 2022–2023 financials are being restated due to depletion expense errors; non-reliance 8-K filed March 31, 2025—an important governance/timing risk for investors .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • Strong full-year operational delivery: revenue up 28% to $39.6M, Adjusted EBITDA up 31% to $22.9M, average production 1,835 BOEPD, and zero debt at year-end .
    • D-J Basin and Permian execution: participated in 24 non-operated D-J wells (WI ~7%–28%) and completed three operated Permian wells with shallower-than-expected declines .
    • Strategic positioning and liquidity: new Citibank RBL ($250M max; $20M initial borrowing base) and JV/participation agreements expected to accelerate D-J Basin development .
    • Quote (CEO): “We are pleased with our strong operational and financial results in 2024… exiting the year with a strong cash position, zero debt, and an untouched $250 million RBL” .
  • What Went Wrong

    • Q4 operating pressure: FY operating income ($4.7M) was below 9M operating income ($6.1M), implying a Q4 operating loss driven by higher DD&A/LOE and accretion increase (~$0.4M in Q4) .
    • Governance/control risk: non-reliance and restatement due to depletion accounting errors; material weakness and ineffective controls as of Dec 31, 2024 .
    • Working capital reliance and reduced cash: cash and equivalents at YE fell to $6.6M (incl. $2.6M restricted) from $20.7M YoY, reflecting increased capital spending and development pace .

Financial Results

  • Income Statement Snapshot (quarterly)
MetricQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Revenue ($USD Millions)$11.811 $9.050 $10.576 (calc: FY $39.553 – 9M $28.977)
Operating Income ($USD Millions)$2.638 $2.831 ($1.357) (calc: FY $4.717 – 9M $6.074)
Net Income ($USD Millions)$2.681 $2.915 $11.420 (calc: FY $17.789 – 9M $6.369)
Diluted EPS ($)$0.03 $0.03 — (not disclosed; FY EPS $0.20)
EBITDA ($USD Millions)$6.923 $5.970 $3.807 (calc: FY $20.958 – 9M $17.151)
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$7.385 $5.699 $5.076 (calc: FY $22.881 – 9M $17.805)
LOE ($USD Millions)$3.548 $2.556 $3.814 (calc: FY $12.449 – 9M $8.635)
DD&A ($USD Millions)$4.242 $3.055 $5.138 (calc: FY $15.920 – 9M $10.782)
  • Margins vs prior periods and estimates
MetricQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024Consensus (S&P Global)
EBIT Margin %22.3% (2.638/11.811) 31.3% (2.831/9.050) -12.8% ((-1.357)/10.576) — (Unavailable)*
Net Income Margin %22.7% (2.681/11.811) 32.2% (2.915/9.050) 108.0% (11.420/10.576; tax benefit effect) — (Unavailable)*

*Values retrieved from S&P Global. Consensus for PED was unavailable in S&P Global for Q4/FY 2024.

  • FY Context (YoY)
    • FY 2024 revenue $39.553M vs $30.784M in FY 2023 (+28%) .
    • FY 2024 Adjusted EBITDA $22.881M vs $17.450M in FY 2023 (+31%) .
    • FY 2024 net income $17.789M vs $1.699M in FY 2023 (benefit includes $12.751M tax credit; ~$0.14/share EPS effect) .

No segment revenue breakdown was disclosed; PED’s principal assets are Permian Basin (NM) and D-J Basin (CO/WY) .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Capital Expenditures ($)FY 2025$27M–$33M total; $24.5M–$30.5M drilling/completions; ~$2.5M other (ESP, conversions, recompletions, facilities, remediation) New
Capital AllocationFY 202570%–75% to D-J Basin under Feb 2025 JD agreement and Aug 2024 PA/AMI New
Liquidity FacilityCurrentCitibank RBL: $20M initial borrowing base; $250M max; no draws to date New
Equity Capacity (ATM)FutureUp to $8.0M “at the market” via Sales Agreement (zero shares sold to date) New
Operations MilestoneQ2 2025Four recently drilled Permian horizontals undergoing completions; plan to turn in-line in Q2 2025 New

No quantitative guidance provided for revenue/EPS/margins/tax rate.

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Note: No Q4 2024 earnings call transcript was found; themes sourced from Q2/Q3 releases and FY release.

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q-2: Q2 2024)Previous Mentions (Q-1: Q3 2024)Current Period (Q4/FY 2024)Trend
D-J Basin development13 non-op wells online; production exceeded expectations; planning next phase Elected to participate in 11 new wells (Harlequin ~28% WI; Purcell 0.7%–13% WI) with Q4 production impact 24 non-op wells participated in FY; JV/participation agreements to accelerate development Accelerating
Permian San AndresThree horizontals completed early 2024; shallower declines; next phase planning with Evolution Planning four wells to begin drilling in early 2025 Four wells drilled and undergoing completions; turn in-line Q2 2025 Continued execution
Liquidity and leverageZero debt; cash $8.7M; strong balance sheet Zero debt; highlighted $250M RBL in place Cash $6.6M incl. restricted; zero debt; $20M borrowing base; $250M max RBL Stable; increased flexibility
Prices/realizationsHigher realized crude and NGL prices drove YoY revenue in Q2 Realized prices largely flat YoY in Q3 FY combined realized price $58.88/BOE (down ~0.4% YoY) Mixed pricing
Governance/controlsMaterial weakness; restatement of 2022–2023 depletion expense; non-reliance 8-K New risk flagged

Management Commentary

  • CEO (J. Douglas Schick): “We are pleased with our strong operational and financial results in 2024… exiting the year with a strong cash position, zero debt, and an untouched $250 million RBL… We anticipate [our agreements] will accelerate the development of our D-J Basin Assets… continuing development in the Permian… turn in-line in Q2 2025… plan to continue to leverage our strong balance sheet and our partnerships to grow production, revenue, cash flow, and profit” .
  • President (Q3 release): “Our Q3 2024 results continue to demonstrate consistently strong production, cashflow, earnings per share, and adjusted EBITDA growth… well-positioned to accelerate the development of our core assets… grow long term production, and increase revenues, profit and cash flow” .

Q&A Highlights

  • No Q4 2024 earnings call transcript was available; no analyst Q&A themes to summarize [Search: none found].

Estimates Context

  • S&P Global Wall Street consensus estimates (EPS, Revenue, EBITDA, target price, recommendation) for Q4/FY 2024 were unavailable for PED; therefore no beat/miss determination can be made. Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
  • Given the outsized Q4 tax benefit ($12.751M) recognized at year-end, any EPS comparison vs estimates would need to separate non-recurring tax effects for a clean operational read-through .

*Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Q4 optics: operationally soft quarter (operating loss) due to higher DD&A/LOE, but FY net income surged from a significant tax benefit; monitor sustainability of underlying operating cash flows excluding non-recurring tax effects .
  • Execution continues: D-J Basin participation and Permian well performance underpin rising Adjusted EBITDA and provide near-term volume catalysts as additional wells turn in-line in Q2 2025 .
  • Liquidity optionality: $20M borrowing base under $250M RBL and ATM capacity ($8M) create funding flexibility for 2025 capex ($27–$33M) without current debt usage .
  • Governance watch: material weakness and restatement process present timing/regulatory overhang; resolution and remediation plan effectiveness are key to valuation confidence .
  • Price sensitivity: FY realized price per BOE slightly declined; earnings leverage remains highly sensitive to crude/NGL realizations and D-J/Permian decline profiles .
  • Working capital and cash: YE cash decreased materially amid capex; continued disciplined spend and partner non-consents/third-party proposals could affect cadence and financing needs .
  • Strategic narrative: partnerships and AMI/JD agreements are central to accelerating D-J Basin development and scaling PED’s asset base—track drilling pace, WI levels, and returns .

Notes on non-GAAP: Adjusted EBITDA excludes share-based compensation and certain gains/losses; reconciliations provided in releases—use in conjunction with GAAP measures .